Squeezing these picks for some of the major categories in at the last minute. It goes without saying that I am not an expert, just a girl who likes movies a little too much.

Best Original Screenplay

Who I Want to Win: Paul Thomas Anderson for Licorice Pizza

Who Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson for Licorice Pizza

Who Will Win: Kenneth Branagh for Belfast

At this point it doesn’t look like Branagh’s semi-autobiographical picture will be taking home many awards, however I believe the Academy will chose to honor this film and this man with this award.

While in my opinion, Licorice Pizza is by far the best script of any of the nominees – I have seen all but The Worst Person in the World – I don’t think this award will be about the actual screenplay. Instead, I believe the Academy will use this as a way to honor Branagh for his breadth of achievements over the years. After all, the man has been nominated for eight Oscars in a stunning seven different categories. It’s an astonishing feat from a well respected member of the Academy that just feels appropriate even if it isn’t – in my opinion – the most deserving.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Who I Want to Win: Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog

Who Should Win: Maggie Gyllenhaal for The Lost Daughter

Who Will Win: Sian Heder for CODA

What an incredible year for the Best Adapted Screenplay category. All five of these films were incredibly adapted into thoughtful and moving films – five of the best of this year. I could see any of them taking home the prize and being deserving of it, but that’s not how the Oscars work.

It was hard for me to try and navigate my thoughts and emotions while electing who I want to see win and who I believe should win for this particular award. In the end, I had to imagine which nominee would leave me with the most dark and stormy feelings should it lose. That line of thinking brought me to the conclusion that seeing Campion’s script lose would be the hardest pill for me to swallow.

While my heart pulls me in one direction, I believe the Academy is being pulled in another. I predict that the Academy will elect to award Heder for the moving adaptation of CODA. As I will dive into later on, I believe they will chose to support this crowd-pleaser of a film here instead of giving it the top prize of the night.

Before moving on I want to note that both Drive My Car and The Lost Daughter are screenplays that feel like they could win in any other year. They were both marvelous films whose writer’s adapted them with care and kindness. If either of them win I will be elated, just a little sad for The Power of the Dog.

P.S. What an amazing year for female screenwriters!!

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Who I Want to Win: Troy Kotsur as Frank Rossi in CODA

Who Should Win: Kodi Smit-McPhee as Peter Gordon in The Power of the Dog

Who Will Win: Troy Kotsur as Frank Rossi in CODA

Troy Kotsur’s performance is central to what is so lovable and moving about CODA for me. He elevates the movie from being good to being the Best Picture nominee that it is and isn’t that what makes a role worthy of an award?

Yet at the same time it is hard to ignore the performance that Kodi Smit-Mcphee gives in The Power of the Dog. He is like a maestro. The gentleness with which he portrays young Peter is so convincing that it blinds you to the fact that he is the foil to the entire plot. He lingers in the background and drives the film forward all while behaving as an unassuming, innocent victim in the scheme of things.

These are two great performances and my heart is telling me that Kotsur is the deserving victor. But there is a voice in my head telling me that years later we may look back with shock that Smit-McPhee was not rewarded for the unbelievable turn.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Who I Want to Win: Kirsten Dunst as Rose Gordon in The Power of the Dog

Who Should Win: Ariana Debose as Anita in West Side Story

Who Will Win: Ariana Debose as Anita in West Side Story

***SPOILERS***

Give me a moment to defend my choice to align my heart with Kirsten Dunst in this category.

The final moments of The Power of the Dog reveal to us that Peter took it upon himself to free himself, his mother, and George from living under Phil’s thumb by killing him. While the unfortunate reality is that we do not need to have justification for killing someone, it is helpful for the viewer to believe that there was a reason why Peter did this. Enter Kirsten. She is tasked with devolving and flailing to the point where we feel that, despite our growing compassion toward Phil, Peter is justified in his actions.

Without Dunst giving a convincing performance the motive and reveal don’t hit as hard. Essentially, the believability of the final moments is completely placed on Dunst’s shoulders. And she greatly succeeds.

Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk.

In reality, I know this is Debose’s year and she deserves every award she has collected along the way. To take on a role that was originated on film by Rita Moreno – who not only won an Oscar for the performance, but solidified the portrayal as truly iconic – is a massive undertaking. The fact that Debose does so with ease and manages to make the role her own? Give the woman the Oscar already.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Who I Want to Win: Benedict Cumberbatch as Phil Burbank in The Power of the Dog

Who Should Win: Will Smith as Richard Williams in King Richard

Who Will Win: Will Smith as Richard Williams in King Richard

Speaking of people who we should just their Oscar already, enter Will Smith. The recognizable and famed actor disappears into this role. To do such a thing at this point in his established career is dumbfounding. I was skeptical and yet within five minutes of King Richard I understood why he was the clear favorite. Just give him the Oscar.

I am sad for Benedict though, because this feels like a performance that could have won him the award had Smith not happened to give this turn in the same year. It’s like being a Drew Brees during the Tom Brady era. Maybe he would have been the best player over the past ten years, he just had the misfortune of playing at the same time at TB12. It’s a bummer for Cumberbatch, who impressed the hell out of me as Phil, but I have a feeling he will be back in the Best Actor race before too long.

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Who I Want To Win: Olivia Colman as Leda Caruso in The Lost Daughter

Who Should Win: Jessica Chastain as Tammy Faye Bakker in The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Who Will Win: This award is up for grabs!

I don’t really know what to say about this category besides the fact that it is about as clear as mud. With such huge names and such lovely performances, the award is really a toss up. I have no idea whose name will be called tonight, but I really hope I get to hear the lovely Olivia Colman deliver an acceptance speech.

Best Director

Who I Want To Win: Steven Spielberg for West Side Story

Who Should Win: Ryusuke Hamaguchi for Drive My Car

Who Will Win: Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog

What all three of these directors did is amazing.

One took a classic from both stage and screen and made it his own. He defied those who doubted that this story needed another chance to be told, that it could be told in a more inclusive and beautiful way. He reminded us all of how talented he is and why he is such a recognized name in the film industry. My heart wants to hear Stevie’s name called.

Another brought each lucky viewer on an emotional journey through love, loss, and the reality that acceptance looks different for each of us. The ability to take this story and translate it with such impactful grace to the big screen is something rare that deserves to be celebrated. I believe that Ryusuke Hamaguchi is the most deserving of this award.

The third dared us to be patient and sit with our uncertainty as she painted a story for us on the screen. Her direction and dedication to the story aided in the delivery of some of the year’s best acting performances and most beautiful frames of film. Her respect in the industry and demonstrated success on the screen make her more than deserving. I am happy to know that Jane Campion is the likely winner of Best Director.

Best Picture

Who I Want To Win: CODA

Who Should Win: Drive My Car

Who Will Win: The Power of the Dog

I don’t believe that we live in a world where a slow-burn tale about grief and learning to to live with it will win Best Picture. Does that make me sad? Yes, yes it does. I believe that as a whole, with every piece working together in unison, Drive My Car is the most impressive feat in filmmaking in the year 2021.

But it’s not the type of film that wins this type of award.

While my head wants to see Drive My Car win it all, my heart wants something else entirely. I long to see CODA recognized for it’s ability to marry a moving, touching story with a well-crafted, well-acted film. For it to be taken seriously in the way it takes the deaf community seriously. Yet, I have a feeling that other awards will be gifted to it’s contributors instead.

Putting all of this to the side, the favorite going into Oscars night and the film that I ultimately think will take Best Picture home with them is The Power of the Dog. This film is a stunning work of cinema featuring performances that will not long be forgotten and admirable storytelling. It’s a visual sight to behold and delivers one of the best movie endings I have seen in a long time. All of this considered, I know deep down that it deserves to be rewarded.

I would be delighted to see any of these films take home the big prize tonight, but where my heart and my head are pulling me is different than what I think will be ultimately awarded. It’s a hard knock life when you care too much and get too invested in these films, isn’t it?