Unlike many of our sports obsessions, Football team’s play a maximum of 21 games per season – including the playoffs. When you compare this to the 82 games that make up a hockey and basketball seasons and the whopping 162 games in an MLB season, it’s clear just how much each game means. There isn’t a series of games in each round of the playoffs where team’s face off up to five or seven times to decide a victor, there is one game with two halves and four quarters. That’s it.

This year we have whittled the NFL down to two teams who, through triumph or luck, have found their way to the end of the season. Waiting ahead of them is the chance to make history and hoist the Lombardi trophy as Super Bowl Champions. Or to face the misery of falling just short. Because with every glorious Super Bowl memory, there is an equally painful memory that haunts the losing team and their franchise. Malcolm Butler’s interception brings tears of joy the the eyes of Patriots’ fans and unilateral rage to the heart of a Seahawks’ fan. All this to say, only one team will wake up smiling on Monday morning and it will either be the San Francisco 49ers or the Kansas City Chiefs.

History Repeats Itself

If you are thinking this match-up looks all too familiar, you are right. These exact two team’s faced off on February 2, 2020. In the hundredth year of the National Football League, Patrick Mahomes starred in and won his first Super Bowl (the franchise’s first as well) against the Jimmy Garoppolo led 49ers. The game shifted in the fourth quarter when the Chiefs mounted a 21-point comeback to claim victory.

Even though it was just one game, it was a game that changed the course of the league in a lot of ways. For one, it ushered in the potential dynasty run for the Chiefs. This team was already making a name for themselves in the AFC by challenging the Patriots in some seriously epic matchups. All thanks to the emergence of Patrick Mahomes as the clear follow-up to Tom Brady as the most dominant quarterback in the NFL. This was seared into history when he brought his team to victory in Super Bowl LIIV. Now, Mahomes is inevitable, but at the time he was a terrifying revelation. I say terrifying because right when Brady and the Patriots finally seemed to slow down, another monster was laying in wait to dominate the AFC. Every other team had to shift gears from taking down to the GOAT, to taking down an offense the likes of which they had never seen.

On the other side of the ball and the league, were the 49ers. One of the most decorated franchises in NFL history, this team had been closing in on something special ever since Kyle Shanahan took over as Head Coach. Yet that very factor was also easy fodder for critics when the team fell apart in the fourth quarter. Shananhan – the son of famed head coach Mike Shanahan – had risen through the ranks and landed this job after a stint as the offensive coordinator of the Atlanta Falcons. During his time in Atlanta, he helped create a historic offense and brought the team to the Super Bowl. Unfortunately for them, the Patriots mounted the biggest comeback of all time in that game, a blemish that has yet to heal for Atlanta and their fans.

I don’t bring up Super Bowl LI just because I am a Patriots fan who likes to remind everyone about our amazing victories, that is just a lovely bonus. I mention this because pairing that historic loss with his loss to the Chiefs, Shanahan garnered the label of a guy who couldn’t finish the job. It’s a common designation in the NFL gifted to teams, players, and coaches who bring the heat during the regular season, but can’t close the deal in the playoffs. Players like Lamar Jackson – a two time MVP for his unimpeachable regular season play – are haunted by this criticism and must face it from the press constantly during the post-season. Shanahan has carried this around with him in the year’s since 2020 and I have no doubt it is in the back of his mind as he looks to take on the Chiefs again this year.

Prior to the kickoff of the 2023-2024 NFL season, many experts threw out their predictions for the year’s bookend game. Some of these potential match-ups are cringe-worthy to look back on – shout out to all the people who picked the Jets to win it all only for Aaron Rodgers to suffer a season ending injury within five minutes of his first game. All the Jets and Bengals picks aside, many of these predictions featured these two squads. The fact that they are duking it out for the championship isn’t that shocking when you look back at preseason speculations, but the journey here was not easy for either team.

Destined for Greatness?

The Niners have been so close yet so far ever since their last Super Bowl match against the Chiefs a few years ago. Their roster is undoubtedly one of the most impressive in the league, and that was before they even brought in Christian McCaffrey last year. With this addition, the team that was already littered with talent became what looked like an unbeatable behemoth. So why haven’t they gotten back to the big show? The answer is twofold.

1. Injuries
2. Quarterback

It’s a common notion that the best team’s don’t always make it to the Super Bowl, sometimes it’s the healthiest team left standing. Even though the NFL season is much shorter than that of other professional sports, the game is incredibly demanding and with the addition of an extra regular season game a few years ago, the number of season ending injuries that teams rack up is only growing. Think about the 2023-2024 Bengals. Many had them as their AFC Super Bowl pick (myself included), and why not? They have an incredibly talented young roster that has proven themselves to be formidable opponents well into the playoffs. But when they lose their star Quarterback for the season and lose their number one Wide Receiver for multiple games, the team looks different. Without Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase, the Bengals aren’t Super Bowl contenders anymore. It’s this affliction that has plagued the 49ers over the past few years. When those important games roll around in January, key players are missing, and the wins are harder to achieve.

San Francisco has been injured during the big moments over the past few years. Defenders, skill players, running backs, and quarterbacks have missed essential games and ultimately cost the team a chance at playing in February. But the quarterback position has also been costly to the Niners even when the man at center is healthy. Jimmy Garoppolo is a lot of things, but clutch is not one of them. In an effort to make a change, the team drafted a new, young quarterback in the stacked 2021 draft. A quarterback who they thought would make an immediate and positive impact on the team. With the third pick, the Niners drafted Trey Lance from North Dakota State. Lance played 19 total college football games and, unfortunately less than half that number of games in the NFL. Yikes. In a team full of promise and talent, the most important position seemed to holding them back.

Enter: Mr. Irrelevant. That’s right, the last pick in the draft has proven to be enough to get the Niners where they need to be. In a season where the team stayed just healthy enough, it was Brock Purdy of all people who helped them make it to the Super Bowl. The debate of whether they made it because of him or whether he does just enough to highlight the overall team’s strengths will potentially be settled on Sunday. Turnovers and strange decisions on Purdy’s part have made this journey a treacherous one. All eyes will be on the big game and the legacy that Purdy will leave is under fire. Will he help this franchise lift the Lombardi for the first time in thirty years? Or will he receive an unflattering brand that he must carry along with him, much like his coach?

These are the kind of stakes that I live for in a Super Bowl!

Timing is Everything

It might seem strange to say this, but this season the Chiefs’ offense may just be the worst one that Patrick Mahomes has been a part of. Their standout wide receiver, Tyreek Hill, jumped ship for a warmer climate. Travis Kelce missed multiples games for the first time in years. The team lost four home games, four primetime games, and six in total. This is the first year since Mahomes became the starter that he had to play an away playoff game. This team is used to dominance in the regular season and the playoffs, but this year was a little different.

Yet here we are, awaiting a Super Bowl featuring “the worst offense Patrick Mahomes has been a part of.” There are a lot of reasons why this team made it to this point in the season despite their less than exceptional performance during the regular season, but here are a few of the key ones:

1. Defense
2. Peaking at the right time
3. Playoff experience

Fans of any and all NFL teams have become are used to offensive prowess from the Chiefs in recent years. Their trick plays, unlikely passes, and pure dominance have been hard to ignore. With their less than stellar offense this year, many are left wondering how they have managed to make it all the way to the Super Bowl. The answer is a little less sexy and it lies on the other side of the ball. The Chief’s defense have quietly dominated this season and hoisted the offense on their backs. The stats alone tell us exactly what we have been missing: this defensive unit is second in fewest total offensive yards allowed, second in fewest points allowed, and one of the least penalized defenses to name a few impressive statistics. Not to mention they have done all this while being one of the worst turnover team’s in the league – in other words, they are doing all this without relying on turnovers to stop the opposition and keep them in games.

If the numbers don’t convince you of this defensive power, let’s just look at the team’s they have beaten thus far in the post-season: half of the top six team’s in total offense. Beating the Niners on Sunday would make it four of the top six.

The old adage tells us that defense wins championships, but so does momentum. As a Patriots’ fan, I know all too well what the power of momentum gained in the playoffs can yield. We suffered two Super Bowl losses, in some of our franchises most historic seasons, to five-seeded and four-seeded New York Giants teams. Peaking at the right time and gaining traction in the playoffs is just as important as health and talent when it comes to winning it all. The Chiefs have the edge in this matchup in terms of momentum. While they had their moments during the regular season – enough to get them to the playoffs in the first place – it has been their energy and drive thus far in the playoffs that got them to this point. On the other side, the Niners may be more talented, but they have been eking out wins thus far in the postseason. It doesn’t look quite as easy for them to get the win as it does for the Chiefs. Whether they are simply more prepared or more driven, Kansas City is peaking at just the right time.

Maybe it doesn’t matter as much considering the Niners are always in the mix come late January football, but the Chiefs have the Super Bowl experience the Niners lack. The pressure, pomp, circumstance, global reach, and more of the big game can be a lot for players to handle. But this Chiefs team is – for the most part – used to the spotlight, and even more used to succeeding in it.

Prediction

I don’t know much about anything when it comes to this kind of stuff. Before the first kickoff of this season, I was prepared for a Bengals vs. Eagles Super Bowl and at the beginning of the playoffs I predicted Ravens vs. Cowboys. What do I know? Not much, but that won’t stop me from making a prediction about the Super Bowl.

• Winner: Kansas City Chiefs
• Score: 24-21
• MVP: Travis Kelce
• Other Fun Predictions: Game sealing pick by Purdy, NO Taylor Swift proposal, at least one missed field goal.

I am prepared to be very wrong, but golly would it be fun if I was even a little bit right!