Here we are! Tonight is the night of the 96th Academy Awards. I have watched most of this year’s nominated films and now it’s time to make some predictions. Below I have assessed my picks for the screenplay categories, the four acting categories, Best Director, and – of course – Best Picture. Since it is me, I will naturally discuss how my heart and head feel before making my official prediction of who will win each category.

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees

• Justine Triet and Arthur Harari for Anatomy of a Fall
• David Hemingson for The Holdovers
• Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer for Maestro
• Samy Burch for May December
• Celine Song for Past Lives

Who I Want to Win: Celine Song for Past Lives

Who Should Win: Justine Triet and Arthur Harari for Anatomy of a Fall

Who Will Win: Justine Triet and Arthur Harari for Anatomy of a Fall

Celine Song did something exceptional and emotionally cruel when she wrote Past Lives. The lines and dialogue were only as much as we needed while leaving room for the actors to communicate to us without speaking. There is a magic in knowing what to explicitly say and what to leave the imagination. The balance she strikes is devastating in it’s impact.

Opposing the “less is more” approach that Song takes is the deluge of dialogue spanning multiple languages that fills Anatomy of a Fall. Both Justine Triet and Arthur Harari give their actors a lot to say, but none of it is throw away or a filler. It is all as meticulous as a trial, as exact as the truth, and as defined as we want the answer to this story to be – spoiler alert: the ending is anything but spelled out for us. This movie shows and tells, twists and turns, and probes in all the right ways. It is a masterful stroke that is as dialogue heavy as a stage production, but as visually thrilling as the best blockbuster. The success of this movie ultimately comes down to the script as how the actors are able to articulate it. Thankfully for all of us, it is masterfully brought to life.

My heart and the head want different things here, but I know I will be bittersweet either way. There is no scenario where they both win, so I can’t be completely satiated.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees

• Cord Jefferson for American Fiction (based on the novel Erasure by Percival Everett)
• Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach for Barbie (based on characters created by Ruth Handler)
• Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer (based on the biography American Prometheus: The Triumph and Tragedy of J. Robert Oppenheimer by Kai Bird and Martin Sherwin)
• Tony McNamara for Poor Things (based on the novel Poor Things by Alasdair Gray)
• Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest (based on the novel The Zone of Interest by Martin Amis)

Who I Want to Win: Cord Jefferson for American Fiction

Who Should Win: Cord Jefferson for American Fiction

Who Will Win: Cord Jefferson for American Fiction

Sometimes it feels as if the Screenplay Oscars are used to celebrate films that the Academy enjoyed, but will not honor in any other category. With the exception of the powerhouse that is Oppenheimer, there is a chance that the majority of the movies in this category will not be taking home awards in any of the major categories. It’s a bit up in the air, but if you ask me I want to see Cord Jefferson win, I think he should win, and I predict that we will win.

American Fiction is a movie that is almost completely reliant on it’s script to be successful. In terms of the sheer filmmaking prowess of the movie, there is nothing that ooo’s and aww’s quite like many of the other major nominees. It isn’t necessarily the way the film is put together or made, but the way the film is constructed and written that makes it one of the year’s best. The rest of these nominees have strong scripts, but have other areas of success that catapult them up into critical or commercial success. All this considered, the film where the script is most valuable is also the film where the script is most well-executed.

Plus, it would be an absolute delight to see this movie celebrated at least once during the telecast – it deserves it!

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees

• Sterling K. Brown as Clifford “Cliff” Ellison in American Fiction
• Robert De Niro as William King Hale in Killers of the Flower Moon
• Robert Downey Jr. as Lewis Strauss in Oppenheimer
• Ryan Gosling as Ken in Barbie
• Mark Ruffalo as Duncan Wedderburn in Poor Things

Who I Want to Win: Robert Downey Jr.

Who Should Win: Robert De Niro

Who Will Win: Robert Downey Jr.

What a lovely best supporting actor race we have this year. I adore all five of these men on and off screen and they have presented us with an eclectic group of performances ranging from outwardly comedic to heartfelt to diabolical. I want to take a moment just to acknowledge how impressive this group of actors and their performances are.

As exciting as this group is, the race for best supporting actor isn’t contentious in the least. It seems as though the Oscar is pretty much guaranteed to land in the deserving hands of Robert Downey Jr.

His was the first of this group of performances that I saw and I remember being absolutely floored by what he is able to do as Lewis Strauss. I am used to the undeniable, over-the-top charisma that Downey brings not just to his role as Iron Man in the MCU, but that he embodies in his everyday life. This guy is oozing with riz. But this performance was a pivot from his usual archetype. This time he was cold and brash and calculated. He was the opposition when we are so used to seeing him as a hero. It’s the type of against the grain performance that really plays against the audiences expectations.

Beyond the impressive nature of his performance, there is a thrill about his potential to get some much deserved credit for an impressive career. He is a seasoned, well-respected actor who has had quite the journey over the course of his time in the spotlight. He has battled personal demons, substance abuse, and climbed his way back to relevance after many were quick to rule his career dead and gone. What he has done in the time since has made him one of the most recognizable movie stars in the world – and one who has just as much substance as a performer as he does a presence on screen. It’s exciting to see him get the credit he deserves for an astounding turn.

As much as I love RDJ and everything he does in Oppenheimer, my estimation of the gravitas of the performance diminished a bit over time. When I saw the rest of these films and witnessed the rest of the nominated performances, I wondered whether or not Downey delivers the best supporting performance of the year. Because to me, that honor undoubtedly belonged to Robert De Niro and his terrifying turn as King Hale in Killers of the Flower Moon. De Niro has played a lot of characters over the course of his 60+ year career. He has played trouble souls, gangsters, criminals, and fathers. But he has never played someone as quietly menacing as Hale. I am quite frankly astonished that he isn’t making more noise in this year’s race. Perhaps it’s because he is already a very celebrated actor with two Oscars of his one (one for lead and one for supporting actor). Perhaps the standard for a Robert De Niro performance is that much higher than it is for the other actors he is up against. Whatever the case may be, I know that if I had a vote it would be for De Niro.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominees

• Emily Blunt as Kitty Oppenheimer in Oppenheimer
• Danielle Brooks as Sofia in The Color Purple
• America Ferrera as Gloria in Barbie
• Jodie Foster as Bonnie Stoll in Nyad
• Da’Vine Joy Randolph as Mary Lamb in The Holdovers

Who I Want to Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph

Who Should Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph

Who Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph

What an absolute delight it has been to watch Da’Vine Joy Randolph absolute dominate the Supporting Actress award this year. She has had a firm grip on this race from the moment the gates opened up on awards season. So much so that my expectations going into The Holdovers were incredibly high. It was a lot of build up, but she effortlessly delivered in her charming, pain-stricken role of Mary Lamb. Further proof that you don’t need to be the loudest voice in the room to be the most impressive.

I am thrilled to see this first-time nominee get her much deserved flowers on March 10th. Just like each time before, seeing her win and hearing her speech will no doubt bring a smile to my face.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees

• Bradley Cooper as Leonard Bernstein in Maestro
• Colman Domingo as Bayard Rustin in Rustin
• Paul Giamatti as Paul Hunham in The Holdovers
• Cillian Murphy as J. Robert Oppenheimer in Oppenheimer
• Jeffrey Wright as Thelonious “Monk” Ellison in American Fiction

Who I Want to Win: Cillian Murphy

Who Should Win: Cillian Murphy

Who Will Win: Cillian Murphy

When this race began there were whispers of a Bradley Cooper win being imminent. His performance is, after all, really going for it in the most Oscar-bait sense of the word. That is nothing to be ashamed of – a lot of people want to win and want to be great. It just didn’t really feel right.

Then began the Paul Giamatti surge. Here we have another consistent actor who has been giving reliably good performances for the whole of his career. If Giamatti is in your movie or on your show, he is going to deliver. Yet he is without a signature performance that has been widely acclaimed and equally rewarded on the big screen. His role of Paul Hunham in The Holdovers is Giamatti doing his thing with the most fire power we may have ever seen. He is both likable and unlikable, he is loud yet deafeningly silent, you are drawn too but also repelled by him. No matter how you feel at each moment of the film, you come away smiling. He has a unique way of making an otherwise pathetic character lovable. It should be studied by scientists.

But underneath all this there has been one consistent narrative around the Best Actor category: it’s Cillian Murphy’s to lose.

It’s hard to say something about Murphy’s turn as J. Robert Oppenheimer that hasn’t already been said. He plays a morally confused man with silent power. He is calculated and reflective and observes the world that he is smack dab in the middle of. He is different than we are used to seeing Cillian Murphy and yet wholly the same. It has been a delight to see someone who doesn’t often get top-billing get a moment to prove to the world why he deserves it. He seized that moment and absolutely knocked it out of the park. This is a hard performance to ignore and will more than likely etch his name in the history books.

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Nominees

• Annette Bening as Diana Nyad in Nyad
• Lily Gladstone as Mollie Burkhart in Killers of the Flower Moon
• Sandra Huller as Sandra Voyter in Anatomy of a Fall
• Carey Mulligan as Felicia Montealegre in Maestro
• Emma Stone as Bella Baxter in Poor Things

Who I Want to Win: Lily Gladstone

Who Should Win: Lily Gladstone

Who Will Win: ???!

In a year where a lot of things are already decided, we have a race in the Best Actress category!

Much like last year – where Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh duked it out until the very end – we have a contentious race here between Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone. Also much like last year, these may be the two most impressive performances of the year, regardless of category.

It saddens me that we can’t reward both of these incredible performances. They are so different at their core it almost feels as if they should be categorized separately. Stone takes every moment of screen time in Poor Things, chews it up, and spits it back at you. She is endearing and captivating and disgusting and polarizing. She is everything all at once and it is loud enough to be heard across the world. In contrast, Gladstone is the quiet beating heart of Killers of the Flower Moon. She observes and suffers and perseveres against the cruelty of the world in which Mollie exists. She is silently beautiful using each glance, smirk, and grimace to communicate what words would not be able to capture. These performances are at opposite ends of the spectrum, yet both hold the viewer in the palm of their hand. They are the movie, it would not be without them.

It feels like an impossible decision to make and I have flip-flopped several times when trying to make up my mind. In the end, I feel a stronger pull towards the work Lily Gladstone does on screen in Killers of the Flower Moon. Not just that though, I believe in the sad reality that this is a woman who will not get the chance to act on this kind of stage very often. Movies are not often made about native people let alone cast native people in them. Emma Stone is a darling of Hollywood sure to receive top-billed roles in major movies that will be both critically and commercially celebrated. Lily Gladstone is, because of the nature of the world we live in, not afforded those same kindnesses. Her ability to not just secure, but even be considered for these types of performances is not guaranteed in the way it is for Stone. I hope this is not the case, but I fear it may be.

The opportunity to celebrate one of the year’s best acting performance in any category, by any actor regardless of gender should always be jumped on. In that spirit, I believe Lily Gladstone not only should win this award, but needs to.

Best Director

Nominees

• Justine Triet for Anatomy of a Fall
• Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon
• Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer
• Yorgos Lanthimos for Poor Things
• Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest

Who I Want to Win: Martin Scorsese

Who Should Win: Jonathan Glazer

Who Will Win: Christopher Nolan

My heart, my head, and my gut are all over the place in this year’s Best Director race.

In my heart, I want to see that little Italian man walk up on to the stage and get the recognition he deserves for crafting a masterpiece as this late stage in his career. Yes, I am talking about Martin Scorsese. Here is one of the great cinematic geniuses who has marveled audiences and critics alike for over sixty years. Though we continue to support and celebrate the work he has created, he doesn’t always get the awards recognition he deserves. We can’t go back and time to give him a golden statuette for the likes of Goodfellas or Raging Bull, but we can celebrate his latest stroke of genius and my favorite film of 2023: Killers of the Flower Moon. I know in my head and in my gut that he will not get the big directorial prize of the night and my heart aches for that.

In my head, Jonathan Glazer has this award in the bag. Say what you will about the viewing experience of The Zone of Interest, it is impossible to deny that he has created something incredibly unique and impactful. This movie should be dreadful or boring or gratuitous or obvious, yet it is none of those things. Instead it is patient without dragging, visually stunning without distracting from the horror, and technically impressive without being in your face about it. By setting up little cameras all around set to capture the actors at work, Glazer creates a real-life documentary feel to the film. This method of direction is a huge part of what makes the film such a haunting experience. A lot of his decisions here are strokes of genius and it seems silly not to celebrate that.

Yet I know in my gut that Christopher Nolan will be receiving the Oscar for Best Director on March 10th. It feels inevitable at this point. Much like Everything, Everywhere, All At Once did last year, Oppenheimer seems set up to take over this year’s ceremony. With two major acting awards, numerous technical trophies, and perhaps the two biggest honors of the night, this ceremony will be featuring a lot of Ludwig Göransson over the speakers as people walk up to accept their awards. Nolan is certainly deserving of recognition for what he did here, I just don’t know if he is more deserving than the other nominees. I certainly would not be casting my vote for him.

Best Picture

Nominees

• American Fiction
• Anatomy of a Fall
• Barbie
• The Holdovers
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Maestro
• Oppenheimer
• Past Lives
• Poor Things
• The Zone of Interest

Who I Want to Win: Killers of the Flower Moon

Who Should Win: Killers of the Flower Moon

Who Will Win: Oppenheimer

As I mused about in my ranking of this year’s Best Picture nominees, we had an amazing year of film in 2023. This Best Picture slate is an exciting one filled with work’s from acclaimed directors, comedies, box office hits, directorial debuts, foreign film, heartwarming portraits, and devastating realities. It’s as fun a group of nominees as I can remember and yet there is little competition as we reach the finish line.

Just as Nolan’s Best Director award is inevitable, so too is Oppenheimer taking home the night’s biggest prize. I am not upset or surprised by this. The Academy loves a biopic (especially one about a white man), they love a director who has put in their due diligence, they love a successful ensemble picture, they love a Best Picture winner with mass appeal, and of course they love long movies. Just not too long apparently, since my clear favorite for the year seems to be disqualified almost due to it’s length. I really enjoyed Oppenheimer. It was an amazing journey into a part of history I didn’t know much about, it was delightfully well acted, the big moments were conducted with precision, and it was a treat to see in the theater. I just don’t know if we will look back on this and think it is deserving of the year’s best film. But I suppose that is part of the Oscar’s: love them or hate them, they are never exactly the way you want them to be.

---

As the Oscar’s do Rank Choice Voting, I thought it would be fun to vote in that same way for all the major categories. Check out what my ballot would look like if I was living my dream as a member of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences:

Best Original Screenplay

1. Past Lives
2. Anatomy of a Fall
3. May December
4. The Holdovers
5. Maestro

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. American Fiction
2. Barbie
3. Poor Things
4. Oppenheimer
5. The Zone of Interest

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Robert De Niro
2. Robert Downey Jr.
3. Ryan Gosling
4. Mark Ruffalo
5. Sterling K. Brown

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph
2. Emily Blunt
3. America Ferrera

**I did not watch Nyad or The Color Purple

Best Actor in a Leading Role

1. Cillian Murphy
2. Paul Giamatti
3. Jeffrey Wright
4. Bradley Cooper

**I did not watch Rustin.

Best Actress in a Leading Role

1. Lily Gladstone
2. Emma Stone
3. Sandra Huller
4. Carey Mulligan

**I did not watch Nyad

Best Director

1. Jonathan Glazer
2. Martin Scorsese
3. Justine Triet
4. Christopher Nolan
5. Yorgos Lanthimos

Best Picture

1. Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Oppenheimer
3. Past Lives
4. The Holdovers
5. American Fiction
6. Poor Things
7. Anatomy of a Fall
8. The Zone of Interest
9. Barbie
10. Maestro