Best Original Screenplay

Nominees

• Sean Baker for Anora
• Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold for The Brutalist
• Jesse Eisenberg for A Real Pain
• Mortiz Binder and Tim Fehlbaum for September 5
• Coralie Fargeat for The Substance

Who I Want to Win: Sean Baker for Anora

Who Should Win: Jesse Eisenberg for A Real Pain

Who Will Win: Sean Baker for Anora

While I enjoyed all the movies I saw nominated for this particular award – I saw all but September 5 – this feels like a two horse race with The Brutalist just out of reach. The magic of both the frontrunners is in the realism of their dialogue. As captivating and masterful as The Brutalist is, some of the dialogue feels too dense to be unplanned, casual conversations between people. While that makes sense in the confines of the film itself, it stands out when compared to A Real Pain and Anora. Both of these films feel improvised in the realism of their dialogue. When pairing this with the orchestrated chaos of moments within each plot, it’s hard not to recognize Eisenberg and Baker for their accomplishments.

Anora was my favorite movie from 2024 and because of that, I want to see it rewarded as such during this year’s Oscars. A huge part of the success of the film is it’s screenplay. However, of all these nominees, I was most impressed by what Jesse Eisenberg put to paper and how well it translated to the screen. While the film itself missed the mark for me a few times, the sharply written dialogue was a huge win. In each of it’s successes there is a smart chose built in to make sure everything comes together. I would be delighted to see Eisenberg take the trophy home as the writing is the most impressive part of that film.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees

• James Mangold and Jay Cocks for A Complete Unknown (based on the book Dylan Goes Electric! by Eligah Wald)
• Peter Straughan for Concalve (based on the novel Conclave by Robert Harris)
• Jacques Audiard for Emilia Pérez (based on the opera Emilia Pérez by Jacques Audiard and the novel Ecoute by Boris Razon)
• RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes for Nickel Boys (based on the novel The Nickel Boys by Colson Whitehead)
• Greg Kwedar and Clint Bentley for Sing Sing (based on the book The Sing Sing Follies by John H. Richardson)

Who I Want to Win: RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes for Nickel Boys

Who Should Win: RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes for Nickel Boys

Who Will Win: Peter Staughan for Conclave

Nearly everyone I spoke to about Conclave has had the same experience with the film: they were surprised by how captivating the film was. If you think about it, the plot of electing a new pope has all the trappings of a potentially dull, slow film. Instead, thanks heavily to the script and performances, this film has soared to be a critical and crowd pleaser of a film. The sharp focus of the film and meticulously crafted stage for the film’s most important moments are the foundation on which the performances and ultimately the film succeed.

Peter Straughan would be a deserving winner of this award, but the best adapted script of the year was for Nickel Boys.

From the moment it begins, Nickel Boys is a unique viewing experience. Many of the creative decisions made that impact the visual experience of the movie are different than what we, as film viewers, are used to. But it’s success is thanks to the script that allowed for a story to be meaningfully told with intense impact without the distraction of the filming style. The screenplay anticipates the adjustment needed by the viewer and guides us by hand through the film until we are comfortable, which is exactly when it soars. Nickel Boys is not an easy watch. It’s uncomfortable and painful. You ache though it and ache after the credits role. But you only ache because of how precisely the story is told.

If and when Peter Straughan wins his Oscar, I will cheer all while knowing he was not the most deserving of the nominees for this award.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees

• Yura Borisov as Igor in Anora
• Kieran Culkin as Benji Kaplan in A Real Pain
• Edward Norton as Pete Seeger in A Complete Unknown
• Guy Pearce as Harrison Lee Van Buren Sr. in The Brutalist
• Jeremy Strong as Roy Cohn in The Apprentice

Who I Want to Win: Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain

Who Should Win: Guy Pearce for The Brutalist

Who Will Win: Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain

My Succession boys are doing so well, I am so proud of them!

The Best Actor in a Supporting Role category is always one of my favorites at the Oscars and this year is no exception. Four out of five of these actors are ones whom I am always excited to see within the top billed cast of a film or television project. As the fifth entrant, Yura Borisov was an absolute delight on screen in Anora. As usual, no complaints from me on these nominees. It’s the fact that only one of these performers can be rewarded that I take issue with.

If it were up to me, which I realize it is not, both Guy Pearce and Kieran Culkin would be able to share this honor. Their performances are both that of eccentric men who are bombastic in their presentation, but have a lot of messiness boiling underneath the surface. Both command the film from formidable acting partners each time they are on screen. Both drive the story of the film even when they are not physically present in the frame. Their impact on the lives of the characters around them are unshakable.

Culkin masterfully captures the essence of a very specific person we all know in our lives. A person who we love and admire, but also drives us completely mad. He does so like he is slipping into an old pair of jeans, there was no doubt they would fit just as perfectly as before. Commentary claiming he is doing the same as he did with Roman Roy must not have watched anything more than the trailer, because he is a whole different type of magnetic and off-putting in this film. His presence on his obligatory Oscar press tour and awards show appearances have been equally as delightful as expected and make me excited to see him achieve and continue to achieve success.

But it’s Guy Pearce’s performance in The Brutalist that knocked me off my feet more so than any other in this year’s group of nominees. As Harrison von Buren he is so many little things. He is enigmatic and theatrical, he is rash and loyal, he is rich and unapologetic, he is magnetic and repulsive. The balance he achieves in this performance makes him completely disappear into the character. It’s cliche to say, I know, but he melted completely into the character as if he shed his own skin for the performance. Without his prowess in this role the movie would not work. He needs to be believable at every step of the story in order for you to invest, buy into, and ultimately care about the arch of the journey we are taken on during the film’s length.

Both these performances are worthy of acknowledgement. Both are a large reason why the movie is successful, but I believe Kieran will win. Not just because he has won nearly all the precursors, but because the movie would not work at all without his performance.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominees

• Monica Barbaro as Joan Baez in A Complete Unknown
• Ariana Grande as Glinda Upland in Wicked
• Felicity Jones as Erzsébet Tóth in The Brutalist
• Isabelle Rossellini as Sister Agnes in Conclave
• Zoe Saldaña as Rita Mora Castro in Emilia Pérez 

Who I Want to Win: Ariana Grande for Wicked

Who Should Win: Zoe Saldaña for Emilia Pérez 

Who Will Win: Zoe Saldaña for Emilia Pérez 

Five women delivered five impressive performances with a large variance in the amount of time they spent on screen. Where Rossellini only appeared for a few moments and Jones didn’t show up until the second half of the film, both Grande and Saldaña are the drivers of the film just as much as their counterparts in the Lead Actress category are. It is these two meatier performances that I preferred above the rest.

Saldaña has been leading the charge in this category at nearly every precursor this awards season, and deservedly so. As an actress, Zoe is always impressive, but the highlights of her filmography from which she is most recognizable feature her drowning in makeup. As Gamora she is green and as Neytiri she is blue. Her experience has been featured mostly in IP films and vocal performances in animation. This role allows for her to shine and lead a film that is named after another character. She is infectious and electric throughout the film and sets a high standard for performance the level of which her costars are not able to come close to. Her win is inevitable at this point, but it is extremely well deserved.

All this said, I would love to see Ariana Grande get recognized for her performance as Glinda in Wicked. It’s a very Ryan-Gosling-as-Ken-in-Barbie performance, which is a large part of the reason I enjoyed it so much. She finds a great balance between theatrical over-dramatization, comedy, and heart. But the real reason why this performance was so impactful for me is that I didn’t see it coming at all. In fact, the biggest thing I was worried about with the Wicked film was this casting. There was no doubt she would be able to kill the vocals – which she does, she was built for a vocal performance like this. But she has never really impressed me as an actress. Would this bring the movie down or prevent me from enjoying it? I was very afraid, but she came through and crushed it. She was absolutely hilarious and simply delightful as Glinda. I know there is no chance, but wouldn’t it just be delightful if she did defy the odds and win it? I think so.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees

• Adrian Brody as László Tóth in The Brutalist
• Timothée Chalamet as Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown
• Colman Domingo as John “Divine G” Whitfield in Sing Sing
• Ralph Fiennes as Cardinals Thomas Lawrence in Conclave
• Sebastian Stan as Donald Trump in The Apprentice

Who I Want to Win: Ralph Fiennes for Conclave

Who Should Win: Adrien Brody for The Brutalist

Who Will Win: Adrien Brody for The Brutalist

This award is Brody’s to lose and it is well deserved. Though it’s easy to point out that Adrien’s body of work as an actor is less impressive than some of the other nominees in this category – namely that of Chalamet who before hitting 30 years old has already starred in a whopping 7 Best Picture nominated films – that isn’t a fair way to judge a performer. When Brody wants to be, he is one of the best actors on the planet and this performance as László Tóth is really the only proof needed to support that fact. His vulnerability, stubbornness, and naked humanity in the film is one of the finest performances I have seen in a long, long time. He is show-stopping at every turn. Even with the film’s long run time, you never tire of him and are always at the edge of your seat about what direction he will go in next. No matter if the film worked for you or not, his performance is hard to ignore in it’s prowess.

Similar to Supporting Actress, the person I would like to see win this award has no chance of taking home the trophy. Ralph Fiennes is an institution in Hollywood. His filmography and consistency are staggering in comparison to Brody’s. Fiennes is all gas and no breaks each time he is on screen, even in Conclave, his silence is deafening. Over my time as a film viewer, he has become a favorite of mine. He is someone I rely on to deliver regardless of the quality of the film. His theatricality and commitment are second to none in Hollywood. He has delivered two of my all time favorite performances in The Grand Budapest Hotel and Schindler’s List, yet it seems as if he will never receive the accolades he deserves.

As we will see in the final acting category, the Academy will likely choose to reward an industry staple with an Oscar this evening. It’s a choice that I very much disagree with and would much rather see this type of treatment for an absolute legend like Fiennes. If anyone deserves an Oscar for a career of impressive performances, it’s this guy.

With all this being said – congrats to Brody, you absolutely killed it. And keep your head up Timmy, your time is coming, you have much better performances ahead of you that will be rewarded as such. And Ralph? You are an Oscar winner to me!

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Nominees

• Cynthia Erivo as Elphaba Thropp in Wicked
• Karla Sofia Gascon as Emilia Perez / Juan “Manitas” Del Monte in Emilia Pérez 
• Mikey Madison as Anora “Ani” Mikheeva in Anora
• Demi Moore as Elisabeth Sparkle in The Substance
• Fernanda Torres as Eunice Paiva in I’m Still Here

Who I Want to Win: Mikey Madison for Anora

Who Should Win: Mikey Madison for Anora

Who Will Win: Demi Moore for The Substance

Congratulations to the nominees who decided to show up, dressed to the nines on March 2nd to lose to Demi Moore for a lackluster performance. Yes, I said it and I am not sorry. Demi wasn’t even the best Actress in her own film. To me, The Substance was Margaret Qualley’s movie and I am still floored that she wasn’t nominated for the performance. What is even more mystifying to me is that Moore has emerged as a front runner, while Margaret politely and gracefully stands beside her rooting her on throughout this campaign. No shade to Demi who has been a staple in Hollywood for decades, but she is not the quality performer that others who receive this sort of honor are. She is not the reliant source of entertainment that Al Pacino has been throughout his career or the nearly-there-but-not-quite that Leo was before The Revenant. There are much more worthy people who should be elevated up to receive an Oscar more for their body of work than for a singular performance. I know that somewhere in her undoubtedly lavish home, Glenn Close is rolling her eyes so hard that the earth is quaking at this decision.

I am mystified by this decision and absolutely devastated for Mikey Madison who 1000% deserves this honor. Madison is the type of ingénue that Hollywood loves. She has worked her way through smaller parts all the way up to the titular role in one of the most fun films in recent memory. Not just that though: she also is the movie. Her energy is infectious through every single moment of the film. I didn’t truly realize just how much she transformed into the character until her press tour where she sits as a soft-spoken, airy, feminine woman in such a harsh comparison to the role she plays.

It’s a real shame that the Academy has an opportunity to celebrate an emerging talent and is instead deciding to provide another first time nominee with what can only be called a life time achievement award. If it weren’t for Mikey, I might be more okay with this, but the reality is that I am very disappointed at the direction this is all heading in. It’s a real shame.

Best Director

Nominees

• Sean Baker for Anora
• Brady Corbet for The Brutalist
• James Mangold for A Complete Unknown
• Jacques Audiard for Emilia Pérez 
• Coralie Fargeat for The Substance

Who I Want to Win: Sean Baker for Anora

Who Should Win: Brady Corbet for The Brutalist

Who Will Win: ???

What Sean Baker does with Anora is an impressive achievement masked by a humorous, adrenaline-pumping, romp of a film. You might not immediately be drawn to the directorial prowess of the film, but it’s hard to ignore that the film’s energy would be messy and unintelligible in the hands of a lesser director. It’s iconography is not immediately obvious to the viewer.

On the other hand, what Brady Corbet achieves with The Brutalist is an obvious achievement of direction. He takes on something monumental and epic that would be so easy to fumble and instead lands the plane masterfully. It’s the kind of movie that you watch and expect to see the name of one of our reliable master’s credited as the director. Instead Brady makes a statement about what he is capable of and sets a high bar for what we can expect to see going forward.

So which way will the voters go: the orchestrated chaotic filmgoing experience of Anora or the gargantuan precision of The Brutalist? Either way, they kinda can’t mess this one up!

Best Picture

Nominees

• Anora
• The Brutalist
• A Complete Unknown
• Conclave
• Dune: Part Two
• Emilia Pérez 
• I’m Still Here
• Nickel Boys
• The Substance
• Wicked

Who I Want to Win: Anora

Who Should Win: The Brutalist

Who Will Win: Anora

I cannot say enough positive things about Anora. I absolutely adored it. It’s hilarious, unfiltered, stressful, and deeply, deeply human. All the flaws and disappointments, all the surprises and shocks, all the humanity of it is meticulous in it’s creation, but effortless in it’s execution. The performances are all exceptional. It’s all laugh, cry, cringe, every emotion type of movie.

I also cannot compliment The Brutalist enough for it’s achievement. It’s genuinely astonishing what everyone involved in the film is able to do. Following in the footsteps of Tár a few years ago, the film managed to create such a believable character who it’s almost shocking to discover is only loosely based on a real person. We spend so much time with the characters in this film, that by the end of it, it’s as if we lived a whole life with them. Say what you will about the length of the film, but there is no question that it uses each moment to settle us into the story and allow us to live in this world with these characters. The length does not feel long, but rather a little bit of time to look through the lives of those we follow in the film.

Both are deserving and no matter what happens, I am just happy that after two solid years of a noncompetitive Best Picture, we have a competitive race this year.

May the best movie win!

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As the Oscar’s do Rank Choice Voting, I thought it would be fun to vote in that same way for all the major categories. Check out what my ballot would look like if I was living my dream as a member of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences:

Best Original Screenplay

1. Jesse Eisenberg for A Real Pain
2. Sean Baker for Anora
3. Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold for The Brutalist
4. Coralie Fargeat for The Substance

**I did not watch September 5

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Ramell Ross and Joslyn Barnes for Nickel Boys
2. Peter Straughan for Conclave
3. Jacques Audiard for Emilia Pérez 

**I did not watch A Complete Unknown or Sing Sing

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Guy Pearce in The Brutalist
2. Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain
3. Yura Borisov in Anora

**I did not watch A Complete Unknown or The Apprentice

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

1. Zoe Saldana in Emilia Pérez 
2. Ariana Grande in Wicked
3. Felicity Jones in The Brutalist
4. Isabella Rossellini in Conclave

**I did not watch A Complete Unknown

Best Actor in a Leading Role

1. Adrien Brody in The Brutalist
2. Ralph Fiennes in Conclave

**I did not watch A Complete Unknown, Sing Sing, or The Apprentice

Best Actress in a Leading Role

1. Mikey Madison in Anora
2. Cynthia Erivo in Wicked
3. Demi Moore in The Substance
4. Karla Sofía Gascón in Emilia Pérez

**I did not watch I’m Still Here

Best Director

1. Sean Baker for Anora
2. Brady Corbet for The Brutalist
3. Coralie Fargeat for The Substance
4. Jacques Audiard for Emilia Pérez

**I did not watch A Complete Unknown

Best Picture

1. Anora
2. Dune: Part Two
3. The Brutalist
4. Conclave
5. Nickel Boys
6. Wicked
7. The Substance
8. Emilia Pérez

**I did watch A Complete Unknown or I’m Still Here